The Australian housing market in 2026 is increasingly difficult to categorize as either a "bull market" or a "sluggish market." Recent market analysis reveals a significant divergence in market dynamics among major cities: Melbourne is described as having one of the most affordable land markets among the country's major cities, while Queensland, particularly Southeast Queensland, remains characterized by tight supply and relatively strong prices. In other words, both markets are worth watching, but for entirely different reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Market analysts point out that Melbourne's biggest transformation in recent years is not just the slowdown in price increases, but also a significant change in its relative position within the national market. Recent reports, citing land market analysis, indicate that Melbourne has shifted from being one of Australia's most expensive or near-most expensive major cities to now being one of the most affordable among major cities. Meanwhile, data released by Oliver Hume in February 2026 shows that Melbourne's median land price rose by only about 41 TP3T in 2025, and by only 0.51 TP3T quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, reflecting that while the market has begun to stabilize, the overall recovery is moderate rather than an overheated surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This pattern has rekindled the attention of some interstate buyers and investors in Melbourne. Another report published on the same day pointed out that after a prolonged slump, Melbourne's housing market is beginning to show signs of recovery, with market expectations that transaction activity could increase by about 20% in the coming year. The focus is mainly on lower-priced and mid-priced detached houses, rather than apartments. In other words, the market is currently not focused on short-term price surges, but rather on the logic of "relatively cheap, fundamentals still intact, and the potential for demand to return."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast, Queensland's story isn't one of "flattening out," but rather "remaining overheated." Oliver Hume's Southeast Queensland report, released in February 2026, shows that the median land price in the region rose by AU$107,500 in 2025 to AU$498,400, an annual increase of 27.51 TP3T. The report also points out that although sales volume declined for two consecutive quarters, prices continued to rise, indicating that the market problem is not a disappearance of demand, but rather a persistently tight supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking further into Brisbane, the upward trend is even more pronounced. According to the same market data, the median price of a vacant lot in Brisbane rose from AU$720,000 at the end of 2024 to AU$935,000 at the end of 2025, an increase of AU$215,000 in one year. This indicates that Brisbane's most critical issue right now is not whether there are buyers, but rather that the supply of new land cannot keep up with buyer demand, thus driving prices continuously higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Comparing the two markets side-by-side reveals a clear difference. Melbourne currently resembles a "valuation recovery market": prices are more attractive compared to other major cities, and transaction volume is still recovering, making it suitable for those looking for medium- to long-term upside potential. Queensland, on the other hand, is more like a "supply-constrained market": demand remains strong, land is scarce, and prices are still firm. Buyers are often not entering the market because they find it cheap, but because they worry about future difficulty in purchasing or finding suitable properties at acceptable prices. This explains why the national housing market can simultaneously exhibit both the phenomenon of "Melbourne attracting value buyers" and "Queensland maintaining high prices."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another important recent signal for Queensland property owners, investors, and prospective buyers is the official land valuation. The Queensland government released a new round of land valuations on March 11, 2026, covering 15 local government territories, with some areas experiencing significant increases. ABC reports that Ipswich saw land valuations rise by over 501 TP3T, while the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast approached 251 TP3T. These new valuations could potentially increase future council rates and land tax pressures. This is an additional holding cost factor that must be considered when comparing the Queensland market with Melbourne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From a broader perspective, Queensland has continued to be supported by population inflows and housing demand in recent years. The latest state population statistics from the ABS show that population changes in each state continue to be influenced by overseas migration and interstate mobility, and Queensland has consistently been one of the states most affected by population growth and internal migration in recent years. Even if net overseas migration to Australia falls back to 306,000 in 2024-25, the pressure on housing supply will not be significantly alleviated. This means that although the Queensland housing market is operating at a high level, it is not purely driven by speculative sentiment, but rather supported by genuine demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From an investment perspective, the answer isn't necessarily which market is "better," but rather which style suits you better. Melbourne is more suitable for those who value relative value and are willing to wait for the market to recover gradually; Queensland, on the other hand, is more suitable for those who focus on supply shortages and believe that land and housing pressures will be difficult to alleviate significantly in the short term. The former's narrative is "relatively flat now, but may recover later"; the latter's narrative is "not flat now, but supply issues remain, and prices may not easily see a significant correction."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we were to summarize Melbourne and Queensland in 2026 in just one sentence, it would be: Melbourne is selling relative value, while Queensland is selling supply scarcity. The former is beginning to attract buyers and investors looking for entry opportunities, while the latter maintains price resilience due to insufficient supply. For today's market participants, the truly important question is no longer "Will the Australian housing market rise?", but rather: Do you want to buy into a market that is still recovering, or a market that is still overheated but whose supply structure has not improved?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. Individual cases require consultation with professionals based on specific circumstances.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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