Australian real estate data analysis think tank CoreLogic recently surveyed more than 1,400 real estate professionals to study their outlook on the economic landscape, property market and business goals in 2024. More than 70% (71%) of real estate professionals expect interest rates to have the most significant impact on the real estate market in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The survey found that 711 respondents (33%) believe that interest rate fluctuations will be the primary driver of the Australian real estate market in 2024. Nearly three-fifths (591 respondents) firmly believe that interest rate hikes will have the greatest impact, while 121 respondents (33%) expect falling interest rates to cause some volatility. Despite the expected interest rate fluctuations, the majority of respondents expressed a positive outlook for the overall economy in 2024, with 571 respondents predicting economic growth and 591 predicting continued price increases this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, 411 respondents agreed that the biggest pressure facing their companies this year was insufficient housing supply, while 381 respondents said high interest rates and inflation were their main concerns. CoreLogic's head of Australian residential research, Eliza Owen, said the survey results were consistent with the major banks' current forecasts for the housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
"The consensus forecast for home values in 2024 is that the market will still be growing, but at a slower pace than the 8.1% observed in the CoreLogic Home Price Index for 2023," Ms Owen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
"Housing demand growth is expected to slow amidst increasing cost of living pressures, higher tax collections and higher interest rates. This means people will have less to save for buying a home \u2013 indeed, the latest ABS national accounts data shows the household savings rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2007. Consumer confidence remains very subdued in early 2024, which may also indicate that households are wary of making high-cost, high-commitment decisions."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
"Despite some headwinds to market demand, growth is expected to remain positive throughout 2024. Continued restrictions in the construction sector are likely to provide support for house prices, and we could see a downward trend in dwelling completions in 2023."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere remains a significant mismatch between housing supply and demand across Australia and anything that makes buying a home easier, such as interest rate cuts, is likely to boost buyer numbers. With inflation currently tracking slightly below the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s forecasts, the case for lower cash interest rates in 2024 is becoming increasingly clear,\u201d Ms Owen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dirk Miller, General Manager of CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions, said the industry is divided on the impact of current economic conditions on their business outlook for 2024. "Our survey respondents, representing a broad cross-section of the real estate industry, expressed confidence that rising home prices and economic growth in 2024 will stimulate long-term business growth, despite expressing strong concerns about interest rate volatility shaping the market this year."<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for the future of housing prices, optimism is widespread. Nearly half (46%) of respondents expect house prices to rise by 1-5% this year, while another 13% predict an increase of more than 5%. 25% believe prices will remain stable, while the remaining 16% predict a fall in 2024. Regarding economic confidence in 2024, nearly three-fifths (57%) of respondents have a positive outlook on the overall Australian economy and expect their businesses to benefit from economic growth in 2024.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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